The Future

[shuboyje]

We did this a few times on CnQ, but this is a new place, and a few things have changed, so let's take another look at it.

What does the future hold for the chinchilla community in the US?

Every time you turn around it seems like another rancher is getting out of chins, yet nobody is taking their place with the large herds that really drive the show system. Pelt prices are back up, but most ranchers seem to be sticking with wholesales since it is a much easier source of income. Where does this leave us going forward? Will the show system eventually fall apart? Will we lose our pelt based standards in favor of pet based ones? Are the days of people getting into chins and eventually having 1000+ animals herds over? Will we see the ranches of the future look more like puppy mills churning out anything and everything so long as it can be wholesaled at 8 weeks old?

Share your thoughts......

 

[starleomach]

I think there will be fewer people stepping up to be Ranchers, but I see an increase in larger hobby breeders. Hopefully they will be quality breeders. I think there are too man not involved in shows that would have a well needed wake up call if they were to start attending.

 

[Jyss]

Here's what I think. I believe that the US is definitely more pet based now than ever before. With the big ranchers going out and no one there willing to take there place, of course it is going to hinder the showing community. There will be less quality competition and the standards may possibly go down for a "breeding quality" chinchilla. Also, the younger community is not contributing the way they should if the chinchilla community as a whole is going to keep on with bigger breeders and such.

I think this is more of a social thought process though as younger people in general are scorned for breeding and such. This is a whole different topic, however. BUT it does make a difference. If they are told "No, no no, you can't breed," many of them wont. And many of those that DO are going to either try to hide it or are going to be battered and bashed until they prove themselves. Young minds are impressionable and if they are beat down enough, they are going to eventually say that it's not worth it and find a new hobby. I know that that is what many of you are trying to avoid by telling them that they should wait to breed, but they are most likely going to try it if they want to because to them, you are just an online bunch of people. But when you tell them no and they say I will and then they are scorned, they are going to quit. If they were supported rather than shot down, I think that many of the younger breeders would find it much more enjoyable and think that they could continue on the legacy of quality chinchillas themselves.

But back more on topic- I do think that the chinchilla community is leaning more towards hobby breeding and the like and appealing to the pet community. As you said, even though pet prices are up, breeders are still preferring to wholesale their animals. Yet who knows, perhaps the chinchilla community will go in cycles and will eventually revert to more of a pelt based breeding mind. Or perhaps we will find a balance as the dog or cat community has (I know they don't pelt...) with showing and pets. Obviously there are far more pet owners, but they do have very high end animals on the market also.

 

[Bethany]

I think there will be fewer people stepping up to be Ranchers, but I see an increase in larger hobby breeders. Hopefully they will be quality breeders. I think there are too man not involved in shows that would have a well needed wake up call if they were to start attending.

I agree totally, I know after I attended a show I decided to do some heavy culling, and I purchased my initial chins from a reputable breeder that showed.

I think there will always be ranchers that breed for the pelt industry, because there will always be a demand. So I think the pelt based standards for showing will always apply.

 

[andymilo]

i just had a few questions....what is the difference between ranchers and large breeders? and what is pelt based standard? i'm just hoping to learn

 

[TillyChinchilla]

I'd consider a rancher a person who raises chinchillas primarily for the pelt/wholesale trade, or at least to a degree where they would show pelts maybe. I'm not sure what number makes you a "large" breeder, I would say 200-300 animals or breeding females, however somebody would want to put it. Everybody has their own ideas. Somebody here may say a large breeder has to have over 1000 animals. Ranchers are breeders, but not all breeders are ranchers.

Most small to mid-size breeders breed mainly for pets and breeding animals. Hobby breeders. It isn't a source of income like wholesaling or pelting.

A "pelt based standard" is what the chins at a show are judged on. It isn't like a rabbit show, where they look at every aspect of the animal, (rabbits need all their toes and whatnot) things like color clarity and density, conformation, size, etc - are based on what kind of pelt the animal would make - to put it simply.

 

[Diva Chins]

While I do agree on some points Jyss made, I disagree on others.

think this is more of a social thought process though as younger people in general are scorned for breeding and such. This is a whole different topic, however. BUT it does make a difference. If they are told "No, no no, you can't breed," many of them wont.

Some people, young or old, shouldn't be breeding. But when some people, like a person on this forum who I won't name but everyone should know who I'm talking about, come on here and say "I KNOW ALL! I'm GOING to breed and YOU can't stop me" and then say "Oh wow, I never knew there were so many mutations!" It's kind of...Discouraging. I actually seen an older woman breeding, couldn't have been past her late 30's, and even I spotted things that looked just plain wrong. Maternity cages all had multiple levels and ramps being just one of them. I think I'm getting a tad off topic too.
I think another reason why rancher numbers are dwindling is because with the economy, it's hard for someone to just run out and by 200 show quality chins and they have to act like vultures and try to salvage which ever breeder is ridding their herd. I think a lot of it has to do with the economy and general attitudes.

 

[Megan]

I think in the next 10 years the overall quality will have dropped. I think you'll find a lot more "mill" type breeders, who are just breeding for the buck.

I also think you'll find rescues and shelters totally flooded much like cavies, rabbits and even dogs/cats are flooding the rescues and shelters today.

I do not see a good future for the chinchilla. It seems when something becomes popular, and a lot of 'pet people' grab ahold of them and start breeding, things go down hill. Look at certian dog breeds. When they went from working lines/homes/breeders to simply pet breeders you see a lot more health problems, less working ablity, many negative changes in a breed... and more and more byb cropping up...

 

[RMC]

I disagree with the statement that the reason the numbers of ranchers is droping is because the economy. The bigger issue,and don't trash me for this it is a fact, Is the age of the average rancher. Most ranchers have 30-50 years experience. very few ranchers started in the late 80's early 90's so their are very few to take the place of those retiring. I am hopefully about the future of chinchilla. Do I think the overall quality will not drop? No but I think there are enough breeders who are serious about quality that the top quality animals will remain more then likely at lower numbers.
But I will ask the question I asked my self, and have asked others before. Where are you going to get your herd improvement standards in 10 years? If you answer is from ranchers? Then I think you better reevalute because more then likely that isn't going to be the case of ranchers haveing large numbers of quality herd improvement standards available. So I plan on getting at least a significant portion of my herd improvement standards from with in my own herd.

 

[shuboyje]

There certainly is a demand now, and probably will be for a long time to come, but there are plenty of suppliers outside the US, suppliers who don't have a wholesale market to sell into like we do. I see South American and Eastern Europe filling the demand, and this isn't my own original idea, I can think of one prominent Rancher who has been to both of those places and was saying this 5 years ago when the market was way down and showed no sign of bouncing back.

I agree totally, I know after I attended a show I decided to do some heavy culling, and I purchased my initial chins from a reputable breeder that showed.

I think there will always be ranchers that breed for the pelt industry, because there will always be a demand. So I think the pelt based standards for showing will always apply.

 

[Chingal]

10+ years down the road I think the great ranchers of today will be gone and it is a very scary thought to entertain but I think that the industry will take a down turn because so far we have lost sooo many great ranchers and noone has stepped up to fill the void and I am sure there are numerous reasons why. I think one is lack of nowledge because of the lack of showing experience on the hobby breeders. I know for me showing was and hopefully will continue to be once I rebuild my herd a very large part of why I breed chinchillas. I agree that if the current generation invested the time and money into showing they would get a well needed wake up call. I also think it is a lack of affordability and a lack of commitment on the new generation as well to become a large ranch amd learn all aspects of the chinchilla industry not just the pet market, but the wholesale, fur trade, etc. I for one would love to learn the ins and outs of the industry but have no clue as to where to start. The shows have taught me alot about quality , husbandry, and breeding but not about the chinchilla industry I am still just a small pet breeder and have no idea how where or what to do when it comes to the other side of the chinchilla industry. I thik alot of the decline comes from left and right wing animal rights groups that have quite frankly scared, tortured, and cost so many good ranchers their business. I honestly get very sad when I think of the future of the chinchilla industry in the US because I think we could possibly lose a very valuable part of our history and an important industry. I think the pet market will continue to thrive as chinchillas become more popular and well known pets and the "exotic" part of them fades away and they become just another pocket pet, but I think as with dogs there will be more low quality animals available than high quality and the prices will go down and down as with all other rodents as there will be more and more available to the pet trade. Take for instance just 2-3 years ago Lionhead bunnies were upwards of $150 for lesser quality pet one and now for an awesome pedgireed double mane they run about $50.

 

[shouts]

But having more dogs hasn't driven down the price of the quality breeds. They're more expensive than ever!

I thin many of these larger breeders have second generations poised to take over their business. The ones who are folding now are not the largest breeders.

Yes, chinchillas as pets will expand if the laws in many states regarding chinchillas as livestock don't change.

And I suspect we haven't seen the peak of the fur industry either. India and China are poised to explode as dominant economic forces in this century.

 

[Chinmandan]

Why is there all this talk about our industry being in a decline? Because we don't have the thousands of members that Empress once had? Because ???????
Well ok, if you want to go that route, the only reason there were that many members and that many contributors to the industry was because people thought they were going to "get rich, quick". We all know different. Those people just "got screw, fast"! Those numbers were vastly inflated as a result of unethical promoters, selling sub-pelt quality animals for thousands of dollars. Do we really want to go back to the 50's, 60's and early 70's where there was no pelt market, or rather there was a market at $2 or $3 a pelt that cost $2.50 to dress. 20-40% Maloclussion rate? Im sorry but after listening to those stories from old ranchers I feel like I'm living in the golden era!

I wrote an article in the Empress Magazine addressing this very subject. And on the whole I think that the Industry has plenty of prosperity ahead. I was rather pleased at the Empress National to see that we had two younger ranchers...who by the way did rather well. I'll go ahead and name those said ranchers. Miller Chinchillas (Nat'l GSC, 2nd Standard breeder award) I dont think Mark is going to retire anytime soon. Jeff Fauber (Class 1 Champ, 5th Standard breeder award) I don't honestly know Jeffs age but I wouldnt guess he was much older than 30(if that). Those two were showing strong animals next to guys who have been in chinchilla for the last 20-50 years! Oh and look at the Mutation Show! The winner of the NGSC and 3BOS as well as 3rd through 7th Breeders were all under the age of 35!(I better get a hug for that Wendy ) I am prepared to see more of these up and coming breeders next weekend in Auburn.

To quote Ralph Shoots "We have never had such a time that selling chinchilla and its products were as viable as they are today" Now I realize Ralph is in a rather unique situation considering his herd size and quality, but that still doesn't disqualify his statement. I myself can sell wholesale babies for $35 at 10 weeks(the perfect place to sell those standard males out of mutations). I can about twice a month(generally) sell a live animal to a pet owner for $100. At the 2008 National Show pelts sold at the highest level than had been witnessed by most of the ranchers since the inception of the industry. Pelting may not be for everyone, and thats fine, but pelting sure is an effective tool in upgrading you herd! And with China's middle class growing and spending money, they want a (quality)fur coat. OK admittedly we're going to see some flux as a result of the volitility of the stock market but that evil is not exclusive to chinchilla. And Yes, South America has upgraded and is buying better stock by the day, but they still cant match American Chinchilla(If they had equal quality they wouldn't still be buying from us!).

OK so what have we covered so far, we have an established "Young Group". We may not be huge but we sure can party! And we have the quality to back it up..... Now the last thing I want to cover is our Organizations. In America we have two dedicated, effective, and forward thinking organizations. Both Empress and MCBA have intelligent and committed boards. We are united in that we have set standards for our animals, we have two very different and equally valuable show systems. We are looking to set new standards and reach new feats in quality. We are united in supporting the Fur Industry Council to fight and undermine the goals of the forementioned left-wing animal rights extremist groups. And lastly. We are united in trying to maintain and expand markets for chinchilla.

I have invested to much of my money, youth, and have made to many very valuable friends in effort to raise a better chinchilla. I am prepared for a strong future for chinchilla and our Industry. We will endure, we simply need to Stand Firm!

Respectfully,
Daniel J. Jensen

 

[SunshineChins]

Miller Chinchillas (Nat'l GSC, 2nd Standard breeder award) I dont think Mark is going to retire anytime soon. Jeff Fauber (Class 1 Champ, 5th Standard breeder award) I don't honestly know Jeffs age but I wouldnt guess he was much older than 30(if that). Those two were showing strong animals next to guys who have been in chinchilla for the last 20-50 years! Oh and look at the Mutation Show! The winner of the NGSC and 3BOS as well as 3rd through 7th Breeders were all under the age of 35!(I better get a hug for that Wendy ) I am prepared to see more of these up and coming breeders next weekend in Auburn.

Jeff is 23 and has been keeping chinchillas for 15 years now. I met him at the show and his knowledge of ranching and chinchillas at his age is amazing.

 

[MerrittChinchillas]

Great post Dan. We know quite a lot of young ranchers and they are dedicated to bettering the breed. The chinchilla industry has seen many ups and downs in the time we have been in it. It always comes back and I see no reason why it won't again. We have seen times where you couldn't give pelts away, then two years ago they reached an all time high. I agree, we have two strong organizations and they need to be supported to the fullest, especially at times like these.

 

[ChinchillasByDesign]

I really really like this thread! When we started breeding we first decided that we were going to also be active in the showing, which I love because it really keeps us grounded on what our goals are! It didnt take us long to decide (and I will most likely get butchered for this) that our goal is a future in the pelt market. We still have SO much to learn, we are still newbies/no-namers, but we ARE learning and puting that knowledge into practice, and growing slowly but surly. After talking with Ralph, and other ranchers, I have high hopes for the future, and I dont beleave that the show standards with be lost. Yeah, we will have ranchers who retire, but we will also have ranchers who are growing, dont forget most of the big ranchers we know today didnt just start out with 1000+ animals, it took time, learning, practice, and work for them to grow in numbers and quality they are now.

 

[MerrittChinchillas]

Well said, Nicole. It is young ranchers like you that give us old timers hope for the future of this industry. :clap1:

 

[SunshineChins]

Very good points Nicole. We just started going to shows this past year and am going to make at least three by the end of the year. Our goal right now is to produce kits that we can bring to show next year and be proud of.

 

[Diamond Bar Chins]

Great post and its nice to see it... Glad to see you put your neck out there Nicole.. Brad and I both have the same goal to in the future we plan to expand to a pelting herd also. More and more of us young ranchers need to do that to support this industry. And we have to stop discouraging so many people from wanting to be breeders as long as they are wanting to do it right. Get them to join Empress and or MCBA and attend the shows and sell them quality animals and help our industry continue ... I sure dont want to see it go anywhere..

 

[designer chins]

Some outstanding statements made, but all said my favorite HAS to be that "under 35" quote by Dan!!!! UNDER 35???? You are a doll, Dan: a shameless flatterer, but I love it!!! (Ah, to be 35 again! Though I have to say as far as chin shows go, 40-year-olds seem to be holding their own!)

This thread has reminded me that I need to get moving and invest more time and energy in supporting MCBA and ECBC, not just with my dues but with more time and effort. I can do far better than I have...